Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5210 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day


DL 5210 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HSV 07:09	LGA 10:34	8%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 5496 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HSV 16:06	LGA 19:28	24%	5%	0.9%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Huntsville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HSV 05:30 → ATL 07:31DL 2556	59m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513	4h 11m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	HSV 07:12 → ATL 09:17DL 3009	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 38m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	HSV 09:50 → ATL 11:49DL 1708	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	5h 00m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	HSV 06:00 → DTW 08:58DL 5382 · flown by Endeavor	3h 17m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:03DL 1669	7h 03m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	HSV 16:20 → ATL 18:25DL 3026	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	6h 04m	98%	84%
American Details →	HSV 06:57 → CLT 09:27AA 6071 · flown by Piedmont	2h 24m Charlotte	CLT 11:51 → LGA 13:48AA 2268	5h 51m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	HSV 12:34 → ATL 14:41DL 2182	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	6h 53m	99%	83%
American Details →	HSV 07:36 → ORD 09:58AA 6464 · flown by SkyWest	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 11:55 → LGA 15:09AA 903	6h 33m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON