Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day C5 4248 ICT 06:36 → IAH 08:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4552 ICT 15:21 → IAH 17:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


C5 4248 CommuteAir	ICT 06:36	IAH 08:35	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 4838 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ICT 09:13	IAH 11:11	10%	3%	0.8%	95%
G7 4510 GoJet	ICT 17:04	IAH 19:03	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
G7 4552 GoJet	ICT 15:21	IAH 17:11	16%	3%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON