tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 5009 at 13:52, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5009 SkyWest IDA 13:52 ORD 18:01 15% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 6h 55m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → IDA 12:25 → DFW 16:21AA 6468 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:37 → ORD 22:12AA 3790 · flown by Envoy 8h 47m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → IDA 07:00 → DFW 11:00AA 6466 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 7h 51m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335 46m Salt Lake City SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00DL 2247 5h 00m 91% 84%
DeltaDetails → IDA 12:58 → SLC 14:10DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 3h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 7h 31m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Denver DEN 20:22 → ORD 23:45UA 377 6h 31m 97% 82%
AlaskaDetails → IDA 13:53 → SEA 14:49AS 3027 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 9h 06m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258 7h 19m 95% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON