Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 4780 at 14:31, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	IND 14:31	RDU 16:21	6%	3%	0.7%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052	5h 40m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 47m	100%	94%
American Details →	IND 07:10 → JFK 09:29AA 4631 · flown by Republic	3h 30m New York	JFK 12:59 → RDU 14:57AA 4658 · flown by Republic	7h 47m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026	6h 25m	100%	93%
United Details →	IND 06:59 → ORD 07:20UA 3483 · flown by Republic	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616	7h 02m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	2h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521	6h 51m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	6h 13m	100%	92%
American Details →	IND 08:57 → LGA 11:15AA 4365 · flown by Republic	2h 23m New York	LGA 13:38 → RDU 15:35AA 4749 · flown by Republic	6h 38m	100%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON