Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 485 KOA 20:55 → SEA 05:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 735 KOA 11:56 → SEA 20:43 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 485 Delta Flight history →	KOA 20:55	SEA 05:37	12%	6%	0.8%	93%
AS 259 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 22:27	SEA 07:01	18%	4%	0.7%	91%
AS 475 Alaska	KOA 12:38	SEA 21:10	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 735 Alaska	KOA 11:56	SEA 20:43	20%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	KOA 07:26 → HNL 08:28AS 1027	1h 11m Honolulu	HNL 09:39 → SEA 18:24AS 122	7h 58m	96%	69%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:47 → HNL 09:49AS 1037	1h 14m Honolulu	HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:44AS 267	7h 57m	96%	65%
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:58 → PDX 20:35AS 253	54m Portland	PDX 21:29 → SEA 22:22AS 452	7h 24m	87%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON