Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2263 at 06:39 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2263 LAS 06:39 → SAN 07:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2269 LAS 14:16 → SAN 15:27 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2263 Southwest	LAS 06:39	SAN 07:51	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2266 Southwest	LAS 08:06	SAN 09:18	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1604 Southwest	LAS 09:42	SAN 10:54	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3210 SkyWest	LAS 10:20	SAN 11:41	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 3011 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 17:25	SAN 18:46	19%	5%	0.8%	66%
WN 2268 Southwest	LAS 15:46	SAN 17:12	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1979 Southwest	LAS 10:51	SAN 12:03	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 1325 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:27	SAN 16:54	21%	6%	0.8%	73%
WN 4237 Southwest	LAS 13:27	SAN 14:38	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3741 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 12:57	SAN 14:13	22%	5%	0.7%	79%
WN 4635 Southwest	LAS 18:19	SAN 19:29	24%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2269 Southwest	LAS 14:16	SAN 15:27	26%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 2252 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 06:50	SAN 08:04	24%	4%	3.8%	76%
AS 2416 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 11:11	SAN 12:29	35%	4%	4.7%	65%
AS 2253 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 07:59	SAN 09:15	56%	8%	2.0%	44%
AS 2282 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 14:38	SAN 15:57	68%	30%	2.2%	32%
AS 2251 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 18:19	SAN 19:36	76%	33%	9.8%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON