tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:24, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:24 → MSP 06:01DL 430 3h 09m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 9h 04m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 9h 00m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:28 → ORD 17:39AA 2891 3h 30m Chicago ORD 21:09 → MEM 22:56AA 3945 · flown by Envoy 9h 28m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:08DL 1681 9h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 2h 57m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 9h 16m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 53m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 9h 37m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416 2h 57m Houston IAH 16:37 → MEM 18:32UA 4054 · flown by Mesa 8h 22m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 13:20 → MEM 17:21DL 2515 8h 06m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 51m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 7h 11m 74% 66%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:17 → EWR 20:54UA 1855 54m Newark EWR 21:48 → MEM 23:28UA 3563 · flown by Republic 9h 11m 72% 61%
DeltaDetails → LAX 12:06 → ATL 19:23DL 395 47m Atlanta ATL 20:10 → MEM 20:32DL 3020 6h 26m 63% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON