tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 6286 at 11:00, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 6286 SkyWest LAX 11:00 TUL 16:10 14% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416 2h 50m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 7h 58m 99% 99%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:20AA 2490 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 06:59 → TUL 08:17AA 4063 · flown by Envoy 6h 04m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:38 → DFW 05:47AA 971 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:44 → TUL 10:06AA 2348 7h 28m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 10h 04m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758 2h 55m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 10h 19m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:13UA 1912 1h 27m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 5h 42m 95% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON