Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 07:28, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 971 Alaska Flight history →	LGB 08:16	OGG 10:52	12%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LGB 07:28 → HNL 10:25AS 869	2h 06m Honolulu	HNL 12:31 → OGG 13:15AS 1106	8h 47m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON