Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2457 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2457 LIH 06:13 → HNL 07:02 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1104 LIH 15:45 → HNL 16:22 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2457 Southwest	LIH 06:13	HNL 07:02	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2586 Southwest	LIH 06:13	HNL 07:08	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2587 Southwest	LIH 08:18	HNL 09:13	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2458 Southwest	LIH 08:23	HNL 09:12	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
AS 1004 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 06:00	HNL 06:36	7%	2%	1.6%	95%
AS 1014 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 07:12	HNL 07:48	9%	2%	1.3%	94%
WN 2459 Southwest	LIH 11:52	HNL 12:41	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1024 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 08:22	HNL 08:59	13%	2%	1.3%	87%
WN 2460 Southwest	LIH 15:50	HNL 16:39	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1034 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 08:55	HNL 09:49	18%	2%	1.3%	88%
WN 2461 Southwest	LIH 19:12	HNL 20:01	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1044 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:46	HNL 10:24	27%	3%	1.3%	85%worse than usual
AS 1064 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:58	HNL 11:52	27%	3%	1.3%	77%
AS 1054 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:16	HNL 11:10	28%	3%	1.3%	84%worse than usual
AS 1154 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 19:14	HNL 20:03	33%	5%	1.6%	78%worse than usual
AS 1074 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:55	HNL 13:34	35%	3%	1.3%	79%worse than usual
AS 1134 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:34	HNL 18:11	36%	5%	1.3%	77%worse than usual
AS 1174 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 20:45	HNL 21:23	37%	5%	1.3%	83%worse than usual
AS 1104 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 15:45	HNL 16:22	40%	6%	1.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON