Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 375 at 21:55 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 375 LIH 21:55 → SEA 06:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 234 LIH 12:31 → SEA 21:21 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 375 Delta Flight history →	LIH 21:55	SEA 06:40	13%	5%	0.9%	89%
AS 213 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 21:34	SEA 06:01	19%	5%	0.9%	82%
AS 234 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:31	SEA 21:21	27%	5%	0.7%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	1h 50m Honolulu	HNL 10:49 → SEA 19:26AS 902	8h 04m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	54m Honolulu	HNL 07:30 → SEA 16:00AS 1878	7h 00m	92%	67%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:55 → HNL 09:48AS 1034	1h 15m Honolulu	HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:44AS 267	7h 49m	96%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON