Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 3630 at 06:00, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3630 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 06:00	DCA 09:29	5%	2%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 02m	98%	89%
American Details →	LIT 05:42 → DFW 07:00AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177	6h 00m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	5h 00m	98%	87%
American Details →	LIT 07:01 → LGA 11:00AA 4656 · flown by Republic	2h 42m New York	LGA 13:42 → DCA 15:14AA 4773 · flown by Republic	7h 13m	98%	87%
American Details →	LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42AA 3656 · flown by Envoy	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 09:57 → DCA 13:12AA 315	5h 41m	95%	86%
United Details →	LIT 07:34 → ORD 09:43UA 4528 · flown by GoJet	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752	7h 18m	98%	85%
American Details →	LIT 07:25 → DFW 09:04AA 3589 · flown by Envoy	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 34m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 07:34 → LGA 11:44DL 4960 · flown by Endeavor	2h 56m New York	LGA 14:40 → DCA 16:19DL 5709 · flown by Republic	7h 45m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON