Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4656 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LIT 07:01	LGA 11:00	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 4960 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LIT 07:34	LGA 11:44	12%	4%	0.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:30 → LGA 11:43DL 557	5h 18m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	7h 03m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	6h 23m	99%	86%
American Details →	LIT 05:42 → DFW 07:00AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → LGA 13:00AA 1056	6h 18m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	6h 25m	98%	84%
American Details →	LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy	1h 33m Charlotte	CLT 11:51 → LGA 13:47AA 2268	5h 38m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 37m	99%	83%
American Details →	LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42AA 3656 · flown by Envoy	3h 13m Chicago	ORD 11:55 → LGA 15:08AA 903	7h 37m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON