Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: F9 4523 at 07:40, 9%.

Safest bet that day F9 4523 MCO 07:40 → AUS 09:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4647 MCO 18:51 → AUS 20:31 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 4523 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:40	AUS 09:32	9%	3%	1.3%	86%
WN 286 Southwest	MCO 09:42	AUS 11:23	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:35	AUS 14:30	17%	5%	1.6%	82%
WN 177 Southwest	MCO 13:26	AUS 15:16	20%	5%	1.6%	no record
WN 291 Southwest	MCO 16:05	AUS 17:46	28%	6%	4.4%	no record
WN 4647 Southwest	MCO 18:51	AUS 20:31	30%	6%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON