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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: B6 138 at 16:43, 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 138 JetBlue Flight history → MCO 16:43 BDL 19:39 30% 14% 1.8% 86%worse than usual
WN 2234 Southwest MCO 17:28 BDL 20:16 35% 10% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201 1h 36m Detroit DTW 10:30 → BDL 12:13DL 2163 6h 08m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 7h 15m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 2h 50m Detroit DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814 7h 16m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 7h 11m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:04 → CLT 08:54AA 1647 3h 03m Charlotte CLT 11:57 → BDL 14:05AA 2741 7h 01m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 7h 54m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:57 → DCA 09:20AA 2745 3h 39m Washington DCA 12:59 → BDL 14:27AA 5059 · flown by PSA 7h 30m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:40 → ORD 11:48UA 2683 2h 58m Chicago ORD 14:46 → BDL 18:02UA 1617 8h 22m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37B6 1947 1h 18m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → BDL 23:59B6 460 5h 34m 60% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON