Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2146 at 17:14, 26%.

Nonstops that day


WN 2146 Southwest	MCO 17:14	MHT 20:16	26%	8%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCO 08:24 → ORD 10:27AA 2279	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 13:50 → MHT 17:14AA 3720 · flown by Envoy	8h 50m	100%	89%
American Details →	MCO 15:27 → ORD 17:35AA 3031	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 20:00 → MHT 23:30AA 4149 · flown by Envoy	8h 03m	95%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 16:42 → ORD 18:53AA 1782	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 20:00 → MHT 23:30AA 4149 · flown by Envoy	6h 48m	73%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON