Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1337 at 08:43 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 1337 MCO 08:43 → RDU 10:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 941 MCO 18:43 → RDU 20:32 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:43	RDU 10:26	4%	2%	0.7%	88%
F9 1112 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:22	RDU 09:16	5%	3%	0.9%	80%
F9 1786 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:09	RDU 15:13	9%	5%	1.3%	77%
DL 1312 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:11	RDU 18:02	10%	5%	0.9%	77%
WN 941 Southwest	MCO 18:43	RDU 20:32	15%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON