tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3661 at 10:40, 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3661 Southwest MCO 10:40 SRQ 11:36 31% 5% 3.2% no record
WN 3476 Southwest MCO 18:35 SRQ 19:31 48% 14% 6.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196 4h 22m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → SRQ 12:27DL 3104 6h 12m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SRQ 15:23DL 3115 6h 18m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 13:05 → ATL 14:44DL 664 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:55DL 3109 6h 50m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573 1h 25m New York LGA 11:06 → SRQ 13:53DL 2412 6h 53m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:04 → CLT 08:54AA 1647 1h 33m Charlotte CLT 10:27 → SRQ 12:29AA 1452 5h 25m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 16:03 → EWR 18:56UA 2629 1h 13m Newark EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324 7h 12m 75% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON