Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2758 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 2758 MDW 06:24 → MCO 09:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 491 MDW 18:21 → MCO 21:48 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2758 Southwest	MDW 06:24	MCO 09:49	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 636 Southwest	MDW 08:28	MCO 11:57	8%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 2764 Southwest	MDW 09:36	MCO 13:05	8%	2%	1.8%	no record
WN 376 Southwest	MDW 12:18	MCO 15:46	13%	3%	3.6%	no record
WN 4933 Southwest	MDW 15:36	MCO 19:04	15%	5%	3.6%	no record
WN 491 Southwest	MDW 18:21	MCO 21:48	20%	6%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON