Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4732 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day YX 4732 MEM 06:04 → DCA 09:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4444 MEM 18:27 → DCA 21:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4732 Republic	MEM 06:04	DCA 09:34	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2953 American	MEM 10:42	DCA 14:12	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 4444 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 18:27	DCA 21:55	15%	4%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON