tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1413 United MRY 04:56 DEN 08:29 11% 5% 1.8% no record
UA 4713 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 12:29 DEN 16:19 17% 5% 0.7% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610 7h 21m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MRY 07:54 → LAX 09:22UA 4717 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Los Angeles LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 7h 22m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 7h 35m 96% 75%
AlaskaDetails → MRY 14:36 → SAN 16:12AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest 1h 33m San Diego SAN 17:45 → DEN 21:01AS 1423 5h 25m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:26 → DFW 17:53AA 2879 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:29 → DEN 21:32AA 577 8h 06m 94% 69%
AlaskaDetails → MRY 06:00 → SAN 07:34AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m San Diego SAN 08:44 → DEN 11:59AS 1422 4h 59m 93% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 44m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 5h 23m 74% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON