tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3384 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 06:00 SAN 07:34 13% 9% 11.2% 91%
AS 3346 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 14:36 SAN 16:12 21% 9% 2.3% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 3h 29m Los Angeles LAX 19:04 → SAN 19:57UA 1100 6h 03m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:56 → PHX 14:56AA 3527 · flown by Envoy 2h 00m Phoenix PHX 16:56 → SAN 18:23AA 480 5h 27m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → MRY 05:57 → PHX 07:55AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Phoenix PHX 10:34 → SAN 12:00AA 2122 6h 03m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → MRY 07:54 → LAX 09:22UA 4717 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Los Angeles LAX 10:37 → SAN 11:46UA 1068 3h 52m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 6h 08m 96% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:26 → DFW 17:53AA 2879 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:02 → SAN 20:03AA 1243 7h 37m 74% 58%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → SAN 11:51UA 2177 3h 51m 55% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON