Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 2290 at 18:21, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 2290 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	MRY 18:21	SEA 20:44	25%	3%	2.1%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MRY 08:30 → SFO 09:21UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m San Francisco	SFO 12:10 → SEA 14:30UA 2744	6h 00m	96%	72%
Alaska Details →	MRY 06:00 → SAN 07:34AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest	1h 57m San Diego	SAN 09:31 → SEA 12:25AS 609	6h 25m	98%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MRY 08:30 → SFO 09:21UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	58m San Francisco	SFO 10:19 → SEA 12:27UA 500	3h 57m	61%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON