tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3487 Envoy MSO 12:46 ORD 17:10 10% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 636 United Flight history → MSO 12:34 ORD 17:05 11% 4% 0.7% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 7h 50m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 3h 57m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 8h 10m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436 3h 52m Denver DEN 20:22 → ORD 23:45UA 377 8h 20m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Denver DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023 7h 10m 100% 81%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 13:59 → SEA 14:35AS 2219 · flown by Horizon 3h 13m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 9h 00m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSO 15:28 → MSP 19:05DL 362 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52DL 1563 5h 24m 93% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON