Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 788 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 699 LGA 18:19 → MCO 20:56 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	5%	2%	0.8%	96%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 05:55	MCO 08:38	5%	2%	1.4%	90%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	6%	2%	1.0%	84%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	6%	2%	1.4%	90%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:52	6%	3%	1.3%	89%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:47	MCO 10:44	7%	3%	0.9%	98%
AA 3038 American	LGA 07:43	MCO 10:32	7%	3%	1.2%	no record
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:52	MCO 08:35	8%	3%	1.3%	83%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:09	MCO 11:57	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:32	MCO 10:18	10%	3%	1.1%	75%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	10%	2%	1.0%	78%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	12%	4%	0.9%	87%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	13%	4%	0.8%	76%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:27	MCO 14:17	14%	3%	1.2%	81%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	14%	5%	1.6%	80%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	15%	6%	1.8%	65%
B6 183 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:09	MCO 12:59	16%	5%	1.2%	81%
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:15	MCO 15:11	17%	6%	1.5%	69%
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:59	MCO 23:19	18%	6%	1.1%	67%
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:33	MCO 16:18	19%	7%	1.7%	75%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 14:05	MCO 17:03	19%	6%	0.9%	81%
UA 2345 United	EWR 14:16	MCO 17:12	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:25	MCO 18:19	20%	8%	1.0%	79%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:00	MCO 18:20	20%	7%	2.1%	76%
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 15:08	MCO 18:00	23%	10%	2.0%	67%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	MCO 23:32	23%	11%	0.8%	73%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	23%	11%	1.7%	62%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	24%	12%	1.6%	68%
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:59	MCO 17:49	26%	11%	3.2%	60%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	26%	12%	1.7%	59%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 18:12	MCO 20:39	26%	12%	1.0%	77%
UA 1863 United	EWR 19:06	MCO 21:37	28%	12%	1.0%	no record
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 18:19	MCO 20:56	32%	21%	2.7%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON