tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 42 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1366 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1366 EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
UA 1366 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 IAD 07:22 5% 2% 1.4% 96%
DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 06:05 DCA 07:23 5% 2% 1.5% 89%
AA 4487 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 06:27 DCA 07:57 6% 2% 1.6% 85%
AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 06:34 DCA 07:58 8% 3% 1.3% 67%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 08:50 DCA 10:15 10% 3% 1.4% 83%
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 08:14 DCA 09:45 10% 4% 1.5% 36%
YX 5809 Republic JFK 10:09 IAD 11:38 11% 3% 1.0% no record
YX 4586 Republic JFK 09:03 DCA 10:17 13% 3% 1.3% no record
AA 4754 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 09:21 DCA 11:01 13% 4% 2.2% 61%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 08:30 DCA 09:58 14% 4% 1.4% 60%
UA 1618 United EWR 10:08 IAD 11:34 16% 5% 1.0% no record
YX 4595 Republic LGA 10:42 DCA 12:16 16% 7% 2.8% no record
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 11:20 DCA 12:42 19% 8% 2.8% 78%
YX 4463 Republic JFK 21:54 DCA 23:26 22% 8% 2.3% no record
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 13:42 DCA 15:14 22% 12% 3.7% 76%
YX 5779 Republic JFK 15:59 IAD 17:28 23% 9% 2.5% no record
DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 21:20 DCA 22:59 23% 10% 2.5% 68%
UA 1784 United Flight history → EWR 21:50 IAD 23:19 24% 9% 1.1% 79%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 14:51 DCA 16:19 24% 10% 4.3% 81%
YX 4691 Republic LGA 15:34 DCA 17:16 25% 10% 3.5% no record
YX 5827 Republic LGA 21:23 DCA 22:52 26% 12% 2.6% no record
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 17:15 DCA 18:59 26% 15% 3.7% 62%
UA 2301 United EWR 15:01 IAD 16:32 27% 8% 1.0% no record
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 14:40 DCA 16:19 27% 14% 3.9% 61%
AA 4473 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 19:51 DCA 21:20 27% 15% 3.1% 91%worse than usual
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 17:28 DCA 19:09 28% 14% 3.7% 74%
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 19:15 DCA 20:59 29% 18% 3.3% 50%
YX 5876 Republic LGA 16:51 DCA 18:20 29% 13% 4.8% no record
UA 8177 United EWR 20:10 IAD 21:36 33% 12% 0.9% no record
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:30 DCA 22:59 35% 17% 2.3% 53%
UA 4437 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 06:30 DCA 07:46 16% 10% 3.1% 84%
UA 6242 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 10:29 IAD 11:55 18% 7% 4.3% 82%
UA 4446 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 08:09 DCA 09:32 20% 14% 5.4% 80%
UA 4444 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 09:00 DCA 10:23 23% 7% 2.4% 77%
UA 4172 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 11:00 DCA 12:23 28% 13% 3.7% 72%
UA 4472 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 13:00 DCA 14:23 29% 6% 13.9% 71%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 19:28 IAD 20:55 31% 22% 14.7% 69%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 16:40 IAD 18:32 38% 21% 12.7% 62%
UA 4433 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 14:00 DCA 15:23 40% 24% 4.3% 60%
UA 4432 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 18:10 DCA 19:48 43% 22% 9.6% 57%
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 20:20 DCA 21:53 55% 25% 9.5% 45%
UA 4486 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 15:30 DCA 16:57 58% 23% 4.7% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON