Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1750 OGG 22:25 → SFO 06:22 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 68 OGG 13:50 → SFO 21:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1750 United Flight history →	OGG 22:25	SFO 06:22	11%	5%	2.0%	96%
UA 2080 United	OGG 13:51	SFO 22:01	14%	5%	2.3%	no record
UA 68 United	OGG 13:50	SFO 21:59	16%	5%	2.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	1h 01m Kailua/Kona	KOA 15:40 → SFO 23:48AS 404	6h 45m	75%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON