Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 960 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:52	SMF 22:02	16%	4%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 10:28 → KOA 11:22AS 1030	2h 24m Kailua/Kona	KOA 13:46 → SMF 22:06AS 843	8h 38m	99%	88%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 55m San Francisco	SFO 19:04 → SMF 19:53UA 1862	9h 43m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 50m Honolulu	HNL 12:10 → SMF 20:18AS 820	8h 37m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	1h 21m Seattle	SEA 17:03 → SMF 18:50AS 681	8h 50m	95%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON