Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1264 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1264 ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2096 ORD 16:34 → ATL 19:42 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1264 Delta Flight history →	ORD 05:30	ATL 08:29	8%	3%	1.1%	91%
DL 1247 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:35	ATL 09:37	10%	3%	1.0%	88%
UA 2684 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	ATL 13:44	15%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:20	ATL 14:25	15%	4%	1.0%	80%
AA 639 American	ORD 06:51	ATL 09:59	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 2249 United Flight history →	ORD 07:16	ATL 10:19	15%	5%	0.9%	89%
DL 1687 Delta	ORD 08:09	ATL 11:16	16%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 530 United Flight history →	ORD 08:59	ATL 12:14	17%	6%	0.9%	82%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:22	ATL 18:36	17%	7%	1.0%	76%
F9 1596 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:05	ATL 10:30	18%	7%	2.0%	74%
AA 851 American	ORD 08:20	ATL 11:33	18%	7%	1.4%	no record
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:44	ATL 16:54	18%	8%	1.1%	72%
AA 2910 American Flight history →	ORD 10:04	ATL 13:17	20%	6%	1.1%	75%
UA 2779 United	ORD 12:41	ATL 15:42	21%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 356 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ATL 17:10	21%	11%	0.9%	75%
AA 3114 American	ORD 19:02	ATL 22:13	23%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 616 American	ORD 12:48	ATL 16:01	24%	11%	1.2%	no record
DL 1652 Delta	ORD 18:33	ATL 21:38	24%	10%	1.7%	no record
UA 1398 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	ATL 21:41	25%	13%	1.0%	58%
F9 1442 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 19:42	ATL 22:54	27%	12%	2.1%	62%
AA 2096 American	ORD 16:34	ATL 19:42	27%	11%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON