Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 3631 Republic	ORD 15:32	ELP 18:00	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3948 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:22	ELP 23:46	16%	2%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002	8h 50m	100%	90%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 56m Denver	DEN 11:38 → ELP 13:34UA 2128	8h 34m	100%	89%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:53 → ELP 11:43AA 1658	7h 43m	99%	85%
American Details →	ORD 09:00 → LAX 11:21AA 1979	3h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 14:23 → ELP 17:32AA 6453 · flown by SkyWest	9h 32m	99%	85%
United Details →	ORD 14:26 → IAH 17:19UA 2062	2h 26m Houston	IAH 19:45 → ELP 20:56UA 4009 · flown by Mesa	7h 30m	98%	84%
United Details →	ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535	2h 42m Houston	IAH 14:33 → ELP 15:44UA 6217 · flown by Mesa	7h 53m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713	8h 06m	99%	83%
American Details →	ORD 15:21 → LAX 17:43AA 529	2h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 19:53 → ELP 23:01AA 4905 · flown by SkyWest	8h 40m	92%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON