Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3500 at 16:55 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 3500 ORD 16:55 → TVC 19:14 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2071 ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:32 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3500 Republic	ORD 16:55	TVC 19:14	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 5726 SkyWest	ORD 07:35	TVC 09:48	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 5877 SkyWest	ORD 11:06	TVC 13:37	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 6368 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:20	TVC 14:36	19%	6%	0.7%	67%
OO 6298 SkyWest	ORD 08:17	TVC 10:20	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 6339 SkyWest	ORD 16:54	TVC 19:14	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4906 SkyWest	ORD 19:31	TVC 21:43	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 5704 SkyWest	ORD 13:55	TVC 16:07	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 677 United	ORD 18:24	TVC 20:32	31%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2071 United Flight history →	ORD 21:25	TVC 23:32	32%	6%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON