Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 30 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2562 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2562 MCO 06:26 → BWI 08:48 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2424 MCO 17:34 → DCA 19:59 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2562 Southwest	MCO 06:26	BWI 08:48	1%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2563 Southwest	MCO 08:27	BWI 10:46	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 2745 American Flight history →	MCO 06:57	DCA 09:20	4%	2%	1.0%	92%
UA 2746 United	MCO 08:57	IAD 11:22	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2568 Southwest	MCO 10:26	BWI 12:48	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
F9 3274 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	BWI 08:54	6%	2%	1.4%	89%
G4 4915 Allegiant	SFB 05:58	IAD 08:19	6%	3%	1.3%	no record
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DCA 12:32	8%	3%	0.9%	83%
WN 1802 Southwest	MCO 11:23	BWI 13:42	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
B6 2024 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:44	DCA 11:00	8%	3%	0.9%	86%
WN 147 Southwest	MCO 15:06	BWI 17:32	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	MCO 12:45	IAD 15:10	9%	4%	0.8%	83%
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	9%	6%	1.3%	70%
WN 2564 Southwest	MCO 14:03	BWI 16:23	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 2577 Southwest	MCO 10:22	DCA 12:31	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 4230 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:01	IAD 10:16	11%	4%	1.0%	77%
WN 777 Southwest	MCO 17:26	BWI 19:48	12%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 373 Southwest	MCO 16:06	BWI 18:27	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 390 United	MCO 18:13	IAD 20:36	12%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	13%	6%	0.7%	67%
AA 958 American Flight history →	MCO 20:42	DCA 23:00	14%	7%	1.2%	58%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	MCO 11:46	DCA 14:15	14%	6%	1.0%	75%
F9 4004 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:53	BWI 14:30	15%	6%	1.3%	57%
WN 1745 Southwest	MCO 13:48	DCA 15:57	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 2579 Southwest	MCO 19:51	DCA 22:04	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1071 American	MCO 14:16	DCA 16:53	18%	7%	1.1%	no record
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:43	DCA 15:06	18%	9%	1.1%	59%
AA 1614 American	MCO 17:15	DCA 19:50	19%	9%	1.3%	no record
B6 2424 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:34	DCA 19:59	27%	13%	1.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON