Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 880 PDX 08:01 → HNL 10:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 813 PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 880 Alaska	PDX 08:01	HNL 10:49	24%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 962 Alaska	PDX 08:08	HNL 10:54	24%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 813 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	HNL 13:28	28%	6%	0.8%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	1h 41m Seattle	SEA 08:58 → HNL 11:55AS 853	8h 36m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:44 → OGG 17:31AS 353	1h 24m Kahului	OGG 18:55 → HNL 19:45AS 1205	8h 01m	95%	69%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:30 → KOA 10:19AS 252	1h 15m Kailua/Kona	KOA 11:34 → HNL 12:32AS 1067	8h 02m	93%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON