Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 26 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3189 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3189 PHX 06:20 → DEN 09:02 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2142 PHX 16:48 → DEN 19:46 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3189 Southwest	PHX 06:20	DEN 09:02	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 337 United Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DEN 08:52	3%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 3190 Southwest	PHX 07:16	DEN 09:58	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1599 United	PHX 07:26	DEN 10:32	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 1376 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:12	DEN 09:16	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 597 United Flight history →	PHX 09:08	DEN 12:00	6%	3%	0.5%	86%
WN 3194 Southwest	PHX 09:01	DEN 11:43	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 227 Southwest	PHX 09:58	DEN 12:39	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 472 Southwest	PHX 10:47	DEN 13:28	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 2602 American Flight history →	PHX 08:37	DEN 11:38	10%	3%	0.6%	64%
F9 4768 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 09:02	DEN 12:06	11%	4%	0.7%	85%
F9 1820 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 20:51	DEN 23:51	11%	4%	0.7%	75%
WN 935 Southwest	PHX 12:28	DEN 15:09	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 6351 SkyWest	PHX 12:59	DEN 15:49	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1745 United Flight history →	PHX 18:59	DEN 21:54	12%	3%	0.5%	77%
UA 280 United	PHX 15:25	DEN 18:31	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 709 United Flight history →	PHX 13:24	DEN 16:08	13%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 8838 Delta	PHX 18:36	DEN 21:21	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1615 United Flight history →	PHX 13:31	DEN 16:27	13%	4%	0.5%	75%
UA 624 United Flight history →	PHX 16:25	DEN 19:21	14%	4%	0.5%	76%
WN 4783 Southwest	PHX 14:34	DEN 17:15	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1638 American Flight history →	PHX 18:57	DEN 21:50	15%	4%	0.6%	70%
WN 3042 Southwest	PHX 13:19	DEN 16:00	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4661 Southwest	PHX 18:33	DEN 21:15	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3192 Southwest	PHX 16:03	DEN 18:45	18%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 2142 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:48	DEN 19:46	19%	4%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON