Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1954 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 1954 RNO 05:56 → SFO 07:24 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 755 RNO 08:06 → SFO 09:17 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1954 United Flight history →	RNO 05:56	SFO 07:24	2%	3%	0.6%	93%
OO 4628 SkyWest	RNO 19:06	SFO 20:21	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2279 United Flight history →	RNO 13:54	SFO 15:24	13%	6%	0.6%	66%
UA 5899 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 11:38	SFO 13:03	18%	9%	0.7%	57%
UA 755 United Flight history →	RNO 08:06	SFO 09:17	37%	13%	0.6%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON