Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 3743 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 3743 SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 9802 SAN 08:20 → LAX 09:02 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3743 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 06:15	LAX 07:35	7%	3%	0.9%	95%
UA 2667 United	SAN 06:20	LAX 07:20	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:54	LAX 12:11	10%	5%	0.8%	91%
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 19:58	LAX 21:13	12%	5%	0.8%	89%
OO 3993 SkyWest	SAN 14:56	LAX 15:55	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2234 United	SAN 16:58	LAX 18:08	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2175 United	SAN 14:24	LAX 15:18	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 9802 Alaska	SAN 08:20	LAX 09:02	30%	5%	3.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON