Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 483 SAN 18:55 → OGG 21:55 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 232 SAN 10:58 → OGG 13:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 483 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 18:55	OGG 21:55	16%	6%	0.7%	85%
WN 623 Southwest	SAN 10:58	OGG 13:56	25%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2546 Southwest	SAN 10:59	OGG 13:37	25%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 249 Alaska	SAN 10:27	OGG 12:59	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 232 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:58	OGG 13:40	25%	4%	0.7%	89%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	55m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	7h 52m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON