Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1726 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1726 SAN 06:24 → SFO 07:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3305 SAN 09:05 → SFO 10:48 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1726 Southwest	SAN 06:24	SFO 07:59	4%	1%	1.1%	no record
UA 2830 United Flight history →	SAN 06:20	SFO 08:07	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1660 Southwest	SAN 12:34	SFO 14:08	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
OO 3100 SkyWest	SAN 17:19	SFO 19:02	21%	8%	1.3%	no record
AS 291 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 21:27	SFO 23:08	21%	8%	2.0%	42%
WN 3497 Southwest	SAN 15:17	SFO 16:50	21%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 1302 United Flight history →	SAN 18:27	SFO 20:07	21%	10%	0.6%	62%
UA 2309 United Flight history →	SAN 11:01	SFO 12:47	21%	7%	0.6%	68%
WN 3454 Southwest	SAN 17:47	SFO 19:20	22%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 1835 United	SAN 12:33	SFO 14:10	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2117 United Flight history →	SAN 16:09	SFO 17:49	23%	7%	0.6%	76%
AS 1450 Alaska	SAN 15:39	SFO 17:15	23%	8%	1.8%	no record
WN 2492 Southwest	SAN 08:34	SFO 10:09	24%	7%	1.3%	no record
OO 3211 SkyWest	SAN 13:01	SFO 14:44	25%	7%	1.3%	no record
AS 3347 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 11:04	SFO 12:51	26%	9%	1.2%	64%
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SAN 19:41	SFO 21:28	27%	10%	0.6%	37%
AS 338 Alaska	SAN 20:01	SFO 21:37	27%	10%	2.0%	no record
UA 1763 United Flight history →	SAN 13:39	SFO 15:19	28%	8%	0.6%	74%
AS 3463 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 07:00	SFO 08:44	28%	6%	1.5%	63%
F9 3383 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 13:33	SFO 15:23	28%	12%	6.3%	27%
UA 1791 United	SAN 09:38	SFO 11:15	29%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1349 Southwest	SAN 19:44	SFO 21:17	29%	9%	1.2%	no record
AS 3305 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 09:05	SFO 10:48	32%	9%	1.4%	31%
AS 2314 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:14	SFO 17:49	72%	10%	3.8%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON