Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3465 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3465 SAN 06:57 → SMF 08:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3439 SAN 11:00 → SMF 12:53 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3465 Southwest	SAN 06:57	SMF 08:37	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4565 Southwest	SAN 08:06	SMF 09:46	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4539 Southwest	SAN 10:06	SMF 11:46	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4472 Southwest	SAN 15:45	SMF 17:22	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1887 Southwest	SAN 14:12	SMF 15:52	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2560 Southwest	SAN 16:58	SMF 18:37	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1728 Southwest	SAN 11:29	SMF 13:09	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3209 SkyWest	SAN 08:14	SMF 10:04	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3469 Southwest	SAN 13:01	SMF 14:40	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 3439 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 11:00	SMF 12:53	25%	8%	0.7%	74%
AS 2100 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 07:44	SMF 09:36	18%	9%	2.2%	82%
AS 2334 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:56	SMF 18:38	43%	12%	0.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON