Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2601 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2601 SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 304 SEA 12:45 → DEN 16:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2601 United Flight history →	SEA 05:00	DEN 08:43	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 4697 Southwest	SEA 06:37	DEN 10:12	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2851 Delta Flight history →	SEA 19:59	DEN 23:44	11%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 1505 United Flight history →	SEA 08:58	DEN 12:45	13%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 1218 United Flight history →	SEA 18:04	DEN 21:37	14%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 1358 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:10	DEN 12:02	14%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 310 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:00	DEN 22:45	15%	3%	0.6%	65%
UA 757 United Flight history →	SEA 15:48	DEN 19:23	16%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 2860 Southwest	SEA 19:04	DEN 22:29	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 3406 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 16:37	DEN 20:27	18%	5%	0.8%	78%
UA 2033 United	SEA 12:36	DEN 16:15	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2543 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:50	DEN 17:43	21%	5%	0.6%	39%
AS 682 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:19	DEN 10:55	23%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 4507 Southwest	SEA 11:12	DEN 14:48	23%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1384 Southwest	SEA 12:52	DEN 16:27	24%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 535 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:44	DEN 15:38	25%	3%	0.6%	78%
AS 602 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:23	DEN 17:58	27%	4%	0.6%	76%
AS 304 Alaska	SEA 12:45	DEN 16:20	28%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON