Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 351 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 351 SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 626 SEA 10:05 → HNL 12:53 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 351 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	HNL 11:34	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:38	HNL 19:50	19%	4%	0.7%	74%
AS 821 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:07	HNL 10:05	27%	4%	0.8%	72%
AS 853 Alaska	SEA 08:58	HNL 11:55	28%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 901 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:05	HNL 00:01	31%	6%	0.8%	72%
AS 1879 Alaska	SEA 18:16	HNL 21:12	34%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 899 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:09	HNL 15:15	35%	6%	0.7%	53%
AS 626 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:05	HNL 12:53	39%	5%	0.8%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	1h 46m Kahului	OGG 15:05 → HNL 15:55AS 1155	8h 40m	96%	68%
Alaska Details →	SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238	1h 36m Kailua/Kona	KOA 20:41 → HNL 21:39AS 1187	8h 40m	94%	65%
Alaska Details →	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	1h 20m Kahului	OGG 18:19 → HNL 19:09AS 1195	8h 16m	87%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON