Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3542 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3542 SEA 05:52 → SMF 07:39 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 763 SEA 10:28 → SMF 12:06 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3542 Southwest	SEA 05:52	SMF 07:39	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4131 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:25	SMF 22:31	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 4125 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:10	SMF 12:17	9%	3%	0.5%	91%
DL 4153 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:40	SMF 16:39	9%	3%	0.5%	88%
OO 164 SkyWest	SEA 08:56	SMF 10:53	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 4043 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:00	SMF 18:57	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 1461 Alaska	SEA 07:15	SMF 09:03	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3544 Southwest	SEA 19:29	SMF 21:18	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3543 Southwest	SEA 16:10	SMF 17:55	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 691 Alaska	SEA 20:38	SMF 22:28	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 681 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:04	SMF 18:54	18%	4%	0.6%	84%
AS 288 Alaska	SEA 12:28	SMF 14:20	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 763 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:28	SMF 12:06	23%	3%	0.6%	75%
AS 2401 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 14:44	SMF 16:37	47%	13%	0.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON