Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


QX 2160 Horizon	SFO 17:05	PAE 19:21	13%	4%	1.3%	no record
QX 2418 Horizon	SFO 08:23	PAE 10:40	13%	4%	1.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 13:48 → SNA 15:27AS 3216 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m Santa Ana	SNA 18:50 → PAE 21:53AS 2116 · flown by Horizon	8h 05m	96%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 14:10 → LAS 15:43AS 776	1h 01m Las Vegas	LAS 16:44 → PAE 19:23AS 366	5h 13m	73%	63%
Alaska Details →	SFO 16:25 → SNA 18:04AS 3492 · flown by SkyWest	46m Santa Ana	SNA 18:50 → PAE 21:53AS 2116 · flown by Horizon	5h 28m	57%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON