Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4532 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 4532 SFO 05:54 → SAN 07:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 939 SFO 10:53 → SAN 12:37 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4532 Southwest	SFO 05:54	SAN 07:27	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
AS 426 Alaska	SFO 07:07	SAN 08:43	11%	2%	1.3%	no record
UA 444 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	SAN 09:59	13%	4%	0.6%	81%
WN 2496 Southwest	SFO 08:44	SAN 10:17	13%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 424 Alaska	SFO 08:22	SAN 09:58	16%	3%	1.1%	no record
UA 1389 United	SFO 22:37	SAN 00:15	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 442 United	SFO 20:58	SAN 22:36	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3007 SkyWest	SFO 09:23	SAN 11:06	20%	8%	1.4%	no record
UA 1668 United Flight history →	SFO 14:17	SAN 16:05	20%	6%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
UA 1257 United Flight history →	SFO 12:21	SAN 14:08	20%	8%	0.6%	67%
AS 1326 Alaska	SFO 17:45	SAN 19:21	20%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 1577 United Flight history →	SFO 18:48	SAN 20:25	21%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	SFO 16:47	SAN 18:39	21%	7%	0.6%	59%
AS 3306 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 21:10	SAN 22:54	21%	10%	2.0%	48%
UA 2177 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	SAN 11:51	23%	8%	0.6%	68%
WN 1435 Southwest	SFO 11:13	SAN 12:46	26%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 4328 Southwest	SFO 15:09	SAN 16:42	26%	8%	0.9%	no record
AS 3310 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 11:32	SAN 13:15	26%	10%	1.4%	77%
OO 3099 SkyWest	SFO 15:19	SAN 17:02	27%	11%	1.4%	no record
WN 3562 Southwest	SFO 19:12	SAN 20:46	27%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 2286 Southwest	SFO 17:59	SAN 19:33	27%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 3382 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 16:23	SAN 18:12	29%	13%	4.2%	47%
OO 939 SkyWest	SFO 10:53	SAN 12:37	32%	11%	1.4%	no record
AS 2058 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 18:42	SAN 20:21	68%	24%	4.8%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON