tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4157 Southwest STL 08:29 SFO 10:38 8% 3% 0.5% no record
UA 573 United STL 07:01 SFO 09:11 8% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 48m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672 7h 55m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → STL 04:59 → ORD 06:28AA 1926 3h 21m Chicago ORD 09:49 → SFO 12:50AA 1851 9h 51m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → SFO 15:49DL 823 8h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 8h 35m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 3h 24m Detroit DTW 16:17 → SFO 18:14DL 442 9h 55m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 4506 · flown by GoJet 2h 56m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 55m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 11m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 9h 47m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 50m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 7h 14m 60% 53%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:39 → LAX 08:55AA 6480 · flown by SkyWest 46m Los Angeles LAX 09:41 → SFO 11:12AA 6277 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 52% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON