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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 275 at 14:09, 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 275 Southwest TPA 14:09 BDL 17:02 19% 7% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 3h 27m Detroit DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814 7h 48m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 6h 30m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 6h 16m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 6h 45m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:25 → ORD 09:23UA 2189 1h 40m Chicago ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195 6h 59m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:38 → ATL 18:16DL 1720 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011 7h 16m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → TPA 08:36 → CLT 10:25AA 1704 1h 32m Charlotte CLT 11:57 → BDL 14:05AA 2741 5h 29m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:13 → MSP 17:47DL 2264 2h 13m Minneapolis MSP 20:00 → BDL 23:39DL 2871 8h 26m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:30 → MIA 18:47AA 2798 1h 57m Miami MIA 20:44 → BDL 23:55AA 1272 6h 25m 65% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON