tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: F9 1381 at 19:42, 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 1381 Frontier Flight history → TPA 19:42 CVG 22:14 21% 9% 2.1% 51%
DL 1679 Delta Flight history → TPA 18:25 CVG 20:42 24% 9% 2.1% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 5h 10m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406 1h 31m Boston BOS 11:40 → CVG 14:07DL 5598 · flown by Republic 7h 07m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149 4h 58m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 6h 41m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169 6h 26m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → EWR 11:51UA 2204 2h 12m Newark EWR 14:03 → CVG 16:26UA 3455 · flown by Republic 7h 26m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → CVG 21:45DL 2248 6h 27m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395 6h 36m 98% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:30 → MIA 18:47AA 2798 58m Miami MIA 19:45 → CVG 22:35AA 4115 · flown by Envoy 5h 05m 55% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON