Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2439 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2439 TPA 06:11 → EWR 09:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1117 TPA 15:53 → EWR 18:36 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2439 United Flight history →	TPA 06:11	EWR 09:04	5%	2%	1.3%	96%
UA 2679 United	TPA 06:59	EWR 09:46	7%	2%	1.3%	no record
UA 2204 United Flight history →	TPA 09:00	EWR 11:51	10%	4%	1.3%	85%
UA 2858 United Flight history →	TPA 10:57	EWR 13:48	15%	5%	1.3%	87%
DL 8952 Delta	TPA 13:01	EWR 15:48	23%	5%	2.1%	no record
UA 1321 United Flight history →	TPA 16:22	EWR 19:19	24%	10%	1.3%	94%worse than usual
UA 1117 United	TPA 15:53	EWR 18:36	30%	10%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON