Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: F9 2538 at 08:12 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day F9 2538 TPA 08:12 → PHL 11:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest F9 4808 TPA 16:17 → PHL 19:10 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 08:12	PHL 11:04	6%	3%	1.3%	68%
AA 2807 American Flight history →	TPA 10:59	PHL 13:38	9%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 1981 American	TPA 12:22	PHL 15:08	14%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 776 American	TPA 14:23	PHL 17:15	16%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 809 American Flight history →	TPA 16:09	PHL 19:05	18%	7%	1.3%	65%
F9 4808 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 16:17	PHL 19:10	20%	7%	1.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON