tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 41 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5802 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–49%.

Safest bet that day DL 5802 DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1831 IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:02 JFK 07:25 3% 2% 1.6% 93%
AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:30 JFK 07:57 4% 1% 1.5% 94%
YX 5843 Republic DCA 06:16 LGA 07:40 6% 2% 2.5% no record
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 06:21 JFK 07:30 7% 2% 1.4% 91%
AA 4403 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 07:15 LGA 08:40 7% 3% 2.4% 90%
UA 1998 United IAD 06:40 EWR 08:06 9% 3% 1.8% no record
UA 2396 United Flight history → IAD 08:25 EWR 09:51 13% 3% 1.4% 89%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 11:05 JFK 12:28 14% 4% 2.3% 94%
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 08:15 LGA 09:33 20% 4% 2.5% 81%
YX 4366 Republic DCA 10:43 LGA 12:16 20% 6% 3.2% no record
YX 4546 Republic DCA 11:42 LGA 13:04 23% 11% 3.8% no record
UA 1997 United Flight history → IAD 22:29 EWR 23:59 23% 7% 1.3% 78%
AA 4522 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:11 JFK 14:44 24% 10% 4.0% 72%
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 22:36 LGA 00:00 26% 8% 3.7% 67%
YX 5809 Republic IAD 12:17 JFK 13:42 26% 7% 3.8% no record
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 11:00 LGA 12:09 28% 8% 3.5% 75%
AA 4629 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 18:36 JFK 20:13 29% 12% 3.1% 71%
YX 5853 Republic DCA 17:01 JFK 18:24 32% 10% 3.5% no record
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:59 LGA 15:31 33% 18% 4.1% 62%
UA 1498 United Flight history → IAD 12:35 EWR 14:01 35% 11% 1.3% 69%
YX 4569 Republic DCA 15:14 LGA 16:47 36% 16% 3.3% no record
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:30 LGA 14:53 36% 21% 5.2% 67%
YX 5779 Republic IAD 18:20 JFK 19:45 37% 14% 3.3% no record
YX 4636 Republic DCA 17:22 LGA 18:56 38% 21% 4.8% no record
YX 4583 Republic DCA 18:55 LGA 20:18 43% 24% 4.6% no record
DL 5768 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 20:40 LGA 21:59 44% 21% 4.4% 54%
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 17:40 LGA 18:59 44% 26% 5.6% 51%
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 19:40 LGA 21:04 46% 27% 5.5% 48%
UA 1831 United Flight history → IAD 17:42 EWR 19:10 49% 16% 1.5% 59%
UA 4167 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 06:00 EWR 07:19 7% 4% 2.2% 93%
UA 4184 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 10:07 EWR 11:29 13% 12% 5.6% 87%
UA 4508 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 11:00 EWR 12:22 14% 11% 6.7% 86%
UA 4430 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 08:30 EWR 09:52 16% 5% 2.2% 84%
UA 6116 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 08:19 LGA 09:48 18% 6% 2.9% 82%
UA 4077 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:15 LGA 18:42 23% 13% 13.9% 77%
UA 4442 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 13:00 EWR 14:22 33% 18% 4.6% 67%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record IAD 19:14 JFK 21:00 36% 22% 12.7% 64%
UA 4560 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 15:10 EWR 16:30 36% 21% 8.3% 64%
UA 4180 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 17:55 EWR 19:28 43% 24% 11.4% 57%
UA 4401 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 16:30 EWR 18:03 44% 23% 5.4% 56%
UA 4174 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 20:25 EWR 21:58 47% 28% 11.8% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON